Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

RAJASTHAN, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
100.0
2019 · 16 of 16
Incumbents contesting
64.0
16 of 25 seats
First-time winners
28.0
7 new faces
Turncoats
5
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
+81.25pp
From 18.75% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    100.0%
  2. 2014
    18.75%
  3. 2009
    33.33%
  4. 2004
    68.42%
  5. 1999
    47.37%
  6. 1998
    52.63%
  7. 1996
    70.59%
  8. 1991
    58.33%
  9. 1989
    0.0%
  10. 1984
    71.43%
  11. 1980
    29.41%
  12. 1977
    28.57%
  13. 1971
    83.33%
  14. 1967
    75.0%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    28.0%
  2. 2014
    56.0%
  3. 2009
    60.0%
  4. 2004
    40.0%
  5. 1999
    20.0%
  6. 1998
    36.0%
  7. 1996
    40.0%
  8. 1991
    28.0%
  9. 1989
    56.0%
  10. 1984
    36.0%
  11. 1980
    56.0%
  12. 1977
    76.0%
  13. 1971
    52.17%
  14. 1967
    65.22%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 5 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2014 9 turncoats2 won (22.22%)
2009 4 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2004 10 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1999 7 turncoats2 won (28.57%)
1998 9 turncoats2 won (22.22%)
1996 8 turncoats1 won (12.5%)
1991 6 turncoats1 won (16.67%)
1989 8 turncoats6 won (75.0%)
1984 16 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 22 turncoats5 won (22.73%)
1977 6 turncoats5 won (83.33%)
1971 3 turncoats1 won (33.33%)
1967 3 turncoats1 won (33.33%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 16 contesting16 won · 100.0% strike rate
2014 16 contesting3 won · 18.75% strike rate
2009 15 contesting5 won · 33.33% strike rate
2004 19 contesting13 won · 68.42% strike rate
1999 19 contesting9 won · 47.37% strike rate
1998 19 contesting10 won · 52.63% strike rate
1996 17 contesting12 won · 70.59% strike rate
1991 12 contesting7 won · 58.33% strike rate
1989 16 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
1984 21 contesting15 won · 71.43% strike rate
1980 17 contesting5 won · 29.41% strike rate
1977 14 contesting4 won · 28.57% strike rate
1971 12 contesting10 won · 83.33% strike rate
1967 8 contesting6 won · 75.0% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 100.0% is above the historical average of 49.1%.

    100.0% vs avg 49.1%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1989 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 16).

    Lowest: 1989 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 2019 with a 100.0% re-election rate (16 of 16).

    Highest: 2019 at 100.0%

  4. 7 winners in 2019 (28.0%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    7 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 22 turncoats, of whom 5 won (22.73% strike rate).

    Peak: 22 turncoats in 1980
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