Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

JAMMU AND KASHMIR, 1967–2019. 13 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
75.0
2019 · 3 of 4
Incumbents contesting
66.67
4 of 6 seats
First-time winners
50.0
3 new faces
Turncoats
2
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
+75.0pp
From 0.0% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1967–2019
  1. 2019
    75.0%
  2. 2014
    0.0%
  3. 2009
    100.0%
  4. 2004
    50.0%
  5. 1999
    66.67%
  6. 1998
    33.33%
  7. 1996
    0.0%
  8. 1989
    66.67%
  9. 1984
    100.0%
  10. 1980
    33.33%
  11. 1977
    100.0%
  12. 1971
    100.0%
  13. 1967
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    50.0%
  2. 2014
    50.0%
  3. 2009
    33.33%
  4. 2004
    16.67%
  5. 1999
    50.0%
  6. 1998
    33.33%
  7. 1996
    83.33%
  8. 1989
    66.67%
  9. 1984
    50.0%
  10. 1980
    83.33%
  11. 1977
    66.67%
  12. 1971
    16.67%
  13. 1967
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2014 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2009 3 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1999 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1998 5 turncoats1 won (20.0%)
1996 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1989 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1984 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 2 turncoats1 won (50.0%)
1977 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 4 contesting3 won · 75.0% strike rate
2014 4 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
2009 2 contesting2 won · 100.0% strike rate
2004 4 contesting2 won · 50.0% strike rate
1999 3 contesting2 won · 66.67% strike rate
1998 3 contesting1 won · 33.33% strike rate
1989 3 contesting2 won · 66.67% strike rate
1984 2 contesting2 won · 100.0% strike rate
1980 3 contesting1 won · 33.33% strike rate
1977 2 contesting2 won · 100.0% strike rate
1971 5 contesting5 won · 100.0% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 75.0% is above the historical average of 55.8%.

    75.0% vs avg 55.8%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 2014 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 4).

    Lowest: 2014 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 2009 with a 100.0% re-election rate (2 of 2).

    Highest: 2009 at 100.0%

  4. 3 winners in 2019 (50.0%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    3 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1998 with 5 turncoats, of whom 1 won (20.0% strike rate).

    Peak: 5 turncoats in 1998
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