Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

HARYANA, 1967–2019. 14 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
57.14
2019 · 4 of 7
Incumbents contesting
70.0
7 of 10 seats
First-time winners
50.0
5 new faces
Turncoats
2
1 won · strike rate 50.0%
Vs previous
+42.85pp
From 14.29% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1967–2019
  1. 2019
    57.14%
  2. 2014
    14.29%
  3. 2009
    71.43%
  4. 2004
    22.22%
  5. 1999
    50.0%
  6. 1998
    30.0%
  7. 1996
    37.5%
  8. 1991
    28.57%
  9. 1989
    60.0%
  10. 1984
    50.0%
  11. 1980
    33.33%
  12. 1977
    33.33%
  13. 1971
    66.67%
  14. 1967
    50.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    50.0%
  2. 2014
    70.0%
  3. 2009
    40.0%
  4. 2004
    30.0%
  5. 1999
    20.0%
  6. 1998
    30.0%
  7. 1996
    40.0%
  8. 1991
    50.0%
  9. 1989
    40.0%
  10. 1984
    50.0%
  11. 1980
    30.0%
  12. 1977
    70.0%
  13. 1971
    55.56%
  14. 1967
    77.78%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 2 turncoats1 won (50.0%)
2014 5 turncoats1 won (20.0%)
2009 6 turncoats1 won (16.67%)
2004 6 turncoats1 won (16.67%)
1999 8 turncoats6 won (75.0%)
1998 7 turncoats2 won (28.57%)
1996 7 turncoats3 won (42.86%)
1991 8 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1989 5 turncoats2 won (40.0%)
1984 7 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 11 turncoats4 won (36.36%)
1977 3 turncoats3 won (100.0%)
1971 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 7 contesting4 won · 57.14% strike rate
2014 7 contesting1 won · 14.29% strike rate
2009 7 contesting5 won · 71.43% strike rate
2004 9 contesting2 won · 22.22% strike rate
1999 10 contesting5 won · 50.0% strike rate
1998 10 contesting3 won · 30.0% strike rate
1996 8 contesting3 won · 37.5% strike rate
1991 7 contesting2 won · 28.57% strike rate
1989 5 contesting3 won · 60.0% strike rate
1984 8 contesting4 won · 50.0% strike rate
1980 9 contesting3 won · 33.33% strike rate
1977 6 contesting2 won · 33.33% strike rate
1971 6 contesting4 won · 66.67% strike rate
1967 4 contesting2 won · 50.0% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 57.14% is above the historical average of 43.2%.

    57.14% vs avg 43.2%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 2014 — only 14.29% of incumbents survived (1 of 7).

    Lowest: 2014 at 14.29%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 2009 with a 71.43% re-election rate (5 of 7).

    Highest: 2009 at 71.43%

  4. 5 winners in 2019 (50.0%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    5 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 11 turncoats, of whom 4 won (36.36% strike rate).

    Peak: 11 turncoats in 1980
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