Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

KARNATAKA, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
62.5
2019 · 15 of 24
Incumbents contesting
85.71
24 of 28 seats
First-time winners
32.14
9 new faces
Turncoats
8
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
-7.07pp
From 69.57% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    62.5%
  2. 2014
    69.57%
  3. 2009
    58.82%
  4. 2004
    54.55%
  5. 1999
    46.15%
  6. 1998
    39.13%
  7. 1996
    21.05%
  8. 1991
    73.91%
  9. 1989
    84.21%
  10. 1984
    78.95%
  11. 1980
    47.37%
  12. 1977
    94.12%
  13. 1971
    61.9%
  14. 1967
    69.23%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    32.14%
  2. 2014
    25.0%
  3. 2009
    39.29%
  4. 2004
    42.86%
  5. 1999
    21.43%
  6. 1998
    21.43%
  7. 1996
    71.43%
  8. 1991
    21.43%
  9. 1989
    32.14%
  10. 1984
    46.43%
  11. 1980
    57.14%
  12. 1977
    42.86%
  13. 1971
    51.85%
  14. 1967
    51.85%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 8 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2014 10 turncoats1 won (10.0%)
2009 12 turncoats2 won (16.67%)
2004 20 turncoats3 won (15.0%)
1999 16 turncoats5 won (31.25%)
1998 11 turncoats5 won (45.45%)
1996 5 turncoats1 won (20.0%)
1991 14 turncoats4 won (28.57%)
1989 11 turncoats2 won (18.18%)
1984 4 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 19 turncoats1 won (5.26%)
1977 5 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1971 9 turncoats3 won (33.33%)
1967 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 24 contesting15 won · 62.5% strike rate
2014 23 contesting16 won · 69.57% strike rate
2009 17 contesting10 won · 58.82% strike rate
2004 22 contesting12 won · 54.55% strike rate
1999 26 contesting12 won · 46.15% strike rate
1998 23 contesting9 won · 39.13% strike rate
1996 19 contesting4 won · 21.05% strike rate
1991 23 contesting17 won · 73.91% strike rate
1989 19 contesting16 won · 84.21% strike rate
1984 19 contesting15 won · 78.95% strike rate
1980 19 contesting9 won · 47.37% strike rate
1977 17 contesting16 won · 94.12% strike rate
1971 21 contesting13 won · 61.9% strike rate
1967 13 contesting9 won · 69.23% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 62.5% is above the historical average of 57.4%.

    62.5% vs avg 57.4%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1977 with a 94.12% re-election rate (16 of 17).

    Highest: 1977 at 94.12%

  4. 9 winners in 2019 (32.14%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    9 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 2004 with 20 turncoats, of whom 3 won (15.0% strike rate).

    Peak: 20 turncoats in 2004
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