Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

ANDHRA PRADESH, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
33.33
2019 · 4 of 12
Incumbents contesting
48.0
12 of 25 seats
First-time winners
72.0
18 new faces
Turncoats
9
2 won · strike rate 22.22%
Vs previous
+6.66pp
From 26.67% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    33.33%
  2. 2014
    26.67%
  3. 2009
    80.77%
  4. 2004
    28.0%
  5. 1999
    39.39%
  6. 1998
    48.57%
  7. 1996
    44.44%
  8. 1991
    58.82%
  9. 1989
    32.14%
  10. 1984
    4.55%
  11. 1980
    86.11%
  12. 1977
    86.21%
  13. 1971
    69.57%
  14. 1967
    79.17%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    72.0%
  2. 2014
    66.67%
  3. 2009
    38.1%
  4. 2004
    47.62%
  5. 1999
    40.48%
  6. 1998
    28.57%
  7. 1996
    54.76%
  8. 1991
    33.33%
  9. 1989
    54.76%
  10. 1984
    78.57%
  11. 1980
    23.81%
  12. 1977
    35.71%
  13. 1971
    53.66%
  14. 1967
    51.22%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 9 turncoats2 won (22.22%)
2014 12 turncoats3 won (25.0%)
2009 11 turncoats3 won (27.27%)
2004 6 turncoats5 won (83.33%)
1999 6 turncoats3 won (50.0%)
1998 9 turncoats4 won (44.44%)
1996 13 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1991 6 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1989 4 turncoats2 won (50.0%)
1984 5 turncoats5 won (100.0%)
1980 16 turncoats1 won (6.25%)
1977 19 turncoats9 won (47.37%)
1971 8 turncoats3 won (37.5%)
1967 4 turncoats1 won (25.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 12 contesting4 won · 33.33% strike rate
2014 30 contesting8 won · 26.67% strike rate
2009 26 contesting21 won · 80.77% strike rate
2004 25 contesting7 won · 28.0% strike rate
1999 33 contesting13 won · 39.39% strike rate
1998 35 contesting17 won · 48.57% strike rate
1996 27 contesting12 won · 44.44% strike rate
1991 34 contesting20 won · 58.82% strike rate
1989 28 contesting9 won · 32.14% strike rate
1984 22 contesting1 won · 4.55% strike rate
1980 36 contesting31 won · 86.11% strike rate
1977 29 contesting25 won · 86.21% strike rate
1971 23 contesting16 won · 69.57% strike rate
1967 24 contesting19 won · 79.17% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 33.33% is below the historical average of 47.8%.

    33.33% vs avg 47.8%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1977 with a 86.21% re-election rate (25 of 29).

    Highest: 1977 at 86.21%

  4. 18 winners in 2019 (72.0%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    18 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1977 with 19 turncoats, of whom 9 won (47.37% strike rate).

    Peak: 19 turncoats in 1977
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